The Urban Stress Test is a digital tool for data-driven resilience monitoring in German cities and municipalities. Developed in collaboration with eleven local authorities, it enables tailored analysis of a city’s resilience and adaptive capacity in the face of typical urban stress scenarios.

If the city we live in were a patien, what would its state of health be? Just like with humans, cities can be examined for so-called vital signs. These indicators reveal where the urban organism is healthy and where stress may lead to overload. And just as with people, the same applies to cities: those who understand the risks can improve prevention, enhance essential services, reduce long-term costs, and in some cases, even save lives.

Events such as heatwaves, floods, or the Covid-19 pandemic have revealed just how fragile urban structures can be and how challenging it is to adapt quickly to new situations. In addition to so-called critical sectors like civil protection, energy supply, cybersecurity, and supply chain stability, municipalities often face further challenges: navigating transformation driven by demographic, social, and economic change.

Using and connecting data

On behalf of the Federal Institute for Research on Building, Urban Affairs and Spatial Development (BBSR), Arup, together with the project and cultural consultancy Imorde, developed a stress test for cities and municipalities in Germany. The research team built on findings from previous BBSR research projects and aligned with the goals of the “Urban Resilience Memorandum,” using an existing prototype as a foundation. In addition to the research team, representatives from eleven cities and municipalities actively contributed to the development process through a participatory approach.

The outcome of the research project is a digitally supported, data-driven, and interactive monitoring tool. It enables cities and municipalities to map their individual resilience profiles in relation to various crises, disasters, and disruptive events. The data is sourced from over 100 public databases, including the Federal Statistical Office and the German Meteorological Service.

Chart.
Chart.

Example of a resilience profile. The stress test examines the resilience of all cities and municipalities in Germany to twelve typical stress scenarios. External migration, shrinkage, swarm city, industry change, social polarisation, heavy rainfall, thermal stress, energy crisis, industrial accident, earthquake, epidemic/pandemic and cyber attacks.

Graphical user interface, application, website.
Graphical user interface, application, website.
Graphical user interface.
Graphical user interface.

Understanding complex interdependencies

The digital stress test for cities is based on the model of the “functional city.” It considers key areas of urban life such as housing, employment, services, and mobility. These are embedded within overarching dimensions like environmental quality, social inclusion, and effective urban governance - which encompasses the interaction between politics, administration, interest groups, and the public.

At the heart of the digital tool are twelve typical stress scenarios that represent potential crises, disasters, or disruptions -such as heavy rainfall, energy crises, or social polarization. These stressors may occur individually or in combination, affecting the delicate balance within the city.

To understand the impact of such acute shocks or chronic stressors, the stress test relies on a framework that combines quantitative data to assess robustness with a qualitative self-assessment by municipalities to evaluate adaptive capacity. Based on this, indicators are identified and grouped into thematic categories -such as economic structure, technical infrastructure, or emergency response capacity (known as descriptors)- which describe the core and cross-cutting functions of the urban system.

Strengthening resilience in the long term

The central analytical output is the so-called resilience profile, displayed via an interactive dashboard. It shows how resilient and how adaptable a city or municipality is in the face of various stressors and crisis scenarios.

A clear diagram presents robustness on the X-axis. This is calculated quantitatively and reflects how stable local structures respond to external influences. Adaptability appears on the Y-axis. It is based on the municipality’s self-assessment, in which they use a structured questionnaire to indicate and evaluate the extent to which adaptation measures have already been implemented or are in development. This creates a comprehensive picture of how well a city is prepared for challenges- and where targeted improvements are needed.

The visual representation makes complex relationships quickly understandable and actively supports discussions within local government and policymaking. It fosters collaboration across departments and helps inform sound decisions, including those related to effective budget allocation. Because the results are easy to interpret, they also help build trust in political decisions and provide a solid foundation for citizen dialogues and committee meetings.

The development team -comprising Arup, the BBSR, and Imorde- presented the tool on September 16, 2025 at the 18th Federal Congress of the National Urban Development Policy in Rostock. Since then, the application has been freely available to all of Germany’s approximately 11,000 municipalities at www.stresstest-staedte.de.

The result of the collaboration between Arup and the BBSR is a powerful yet easy-to-use tool for measuring urban resilience. The stress test serves as a strategic early warning system for crises, threats, and disasters, and supports municipalities across Germany in improving risk preparedness as part of integrated urban development.

Christian Rauch

Head of Division at the Federal Institute for Research on Building, Urban Affairs and Spatial Development (BBSR)

Partners & collaborators

Federal Institute for Research on Building, Urban Affairs and Spatial Development (BBSR) / Project & Cultural Consultancy IMORDE